Mentor
Dr. Irwin Levin
Participation year
2009
Project title

Illusion of Control (experimenter versus subject) and Confidence in Children's and Adult's Predictions of Uncertain Outcomes

Abstract

According to Shiezek and Henry (1989), confidence affects whether a possible course of actions actually followed. Inappropriate confidence is a threat to successful decision making and implementation, resulting in different types of problems, including mental health related problems. An example is the Gamblers Fallacy effect, where some decision makers believe that a string of bad luck will be followed by good luck. This study measured differences in confidence between children and adults using the Gamblers Fallacy Task, where participants have to guess which of two colors of beans will be drawn on necessary trials. This study applies the Gamblers Fallacy Task, by manipulating winning streaks and losing streaks, to measure confidence levels in whether a winning streak will continue and a losing streak will end. There were 24 child/parent pairs taken from the database of the University of Iowa Child Registry. The design used was a 2x2x2 Repeated Measures Anova with 3 independent variables: child versus parent, winning streak versus losing streak, and whether the experimenter or the subject draws the bean. Results showed an interesting trend for children to be more confident than parents in drawing the winning color when they draw it themselves, and when it followed a winning streak. Future research should investigate the role of optimism as well as other personality traits and emotional stability on a person's confidence in a choice, which in fact, is only based in uncontrollable random factors. Neuroscientists are continuing to investigate how the incomplete development of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex contributes to differences in decision making between children and adults.

Laura  Miranda
Education
University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras